Lukashenko is wrong thinking Belarus would be given not only the carriers of russia nuclear weapons, but also the button
There is nothing new in nuclear weapons threat of the World by russia.
Nuclear weapons have not yet been transferred to Belarus, only their carriers, – Commander of the Joint Forces Sergiy Naev said. “There was a transfer of the carriers of such means, and as far as nuclear weapons are concerned, they announced that this would happen. As of now, it has not been noted, but that does not mean that it cannot happen in the near future.”
Let’s talk on the professional level about the real threats and possibilities of the use of russian nukes from Belarus with Oleksandr Kochetkov, analyst, political technologist, former developer, design engineer at the Pivdennyi Design Bureau.
Good afternoon, Oleksandr.
Let’s sort things out. What’s going on? Has the russian Federation, the Kremlin, Putin changed their mind about placing nuclear facilities in Belarus? Or was it not supposed to happen at all? And is what Lukashenko said on camera, including to the Belarusian media, a circus?
To begin with, I have an impression that Lukashenko may know a thing or two about growing potatoes, but he definitely doesn’t know about nuclear missile weapons. For some reason, he decided that he would be given not only the carriers of nuclear weapons, the charges, but also this button, this device – the so-called “nuclear suitcase”.
No one was going to do this – control always remained with Moscow. Actually, Ukraine got rid of nuclear weapon precisely because we had no control over it.
And here’s such an interesting thing: the Kremlin hoped that, if anything happened, they could launch nuclear weapons from the territory of Belarus. And a retaliatory strike will also come to the territory of Belarus. But the button will be pressed by Putin.
However, China didn’t like this proliferation of nuclear weapons even if it’s controlled by the Kremlin. And then, it (China) publicly opposed it. And the Kremlin can’t help listening to China, especially now – it has had an effect. On the other hand, information spread that Lukashenko is an unreliable person – the Kremlin thinks.
As soon as he finds out that he has tactical nuclear weapons without a button, he will immediately begin negotiating with the West and Europe to secretly transfer these weapons to them in exchange for recognizing him as the president of Belarus. These so-called partners do not trust each other, so this nuclear blackmail has no effect.
Mr. Kochetkov, from a purely technical point of view, can the world or Ukraine or other countries not know, not see what will happen if Putin decides to leave the button in Russia, but move all the equipment to Belarus secretly? Purely technically: how long is this process, is it simple or complicated, who can see it and who can’t? What systems record it?
It is recorded by different means, first of all, radio-electronic reconnaissance means. Satellites keep a close eye on nuclear weapons storage facilities. Nuclear weapons are not stored in the open air like other ammunition. It’s a huge underground structure. Its coordinates have been known since the time of the Soviet Union.
Satellites of the United States and our other allies, as well as reconnaissance aircraft always keep an eye on this facility – they also detect such movements. If this weapon is taken out of the storage even 5 meters away, it immediately “goes off”.
Very, very quietly, but it emits radioactive radiation – and a satellite detects it. Besides, there is such a tool as human intelligence – they can’t hide it if they pull something according to the protocol.
If Russia pulls out at least one warhead and does not officially inform the United States that they are taking it to the manufacturer’s factory somewhere, it is already perceived as a nuclear threat.
Transportation cannot be hidden either. It is carried in a special convoy, in a special container on a special vehicle, with escort and security guards.
By the way, russia recently has conducted the exercises on the transportation of nuclear weapons. Of course, they transported full-scale mock-ups of weapons. They informed the USA about it, and the USA monitored these exercises.
So the Kremlin, Putin fears for his own life, and these nuclear security contacts between the Kremlin and the White House are maintained even now.
What do you think the movement of tactical aircraft that can carry nuclear charges to Murmansk, and to the Olenya airfield demonstrates?
This may indicate that Ukraine receives more and more modern long-range weapons capable of reaching the airfields where these aircraft were based before.
First of all, they were based at the Engels airbase; there is a nuclear warheads storage facility nearby. Our drones started reaching it and they were forced to move them above the Arctic Circle.
Mr. Oleksandr, what is the current condition of the russian nuclear weapon and equipment for its maintenance and support? We understand that these are technologies that cannot simply stand for years, without any human intervention. What condition is it in?
This is the question, the answer to which the whole world would like to know. And even the Kremlin would like to know for sure whether they actually have combat-ready nuclear weapons or not.
As for strategic nuclear weapons, most likely they are in a combat-ready condition, because they are controlled after the Soviet times, updated, monitored and so on.
There are very strict temperature parameters for storing nuclear weapons. If the weapon is not maintained at the proper temperature, it will fail.
As for tactical nuclear weapons, no strategies were developed under the Soviet Union. They were just stored. No one checked them. And the condition of tactical nuclear weapons is unknown. Attempts to use it must be preceded by tests. Underground tests are recorded by seismic sensors, whereas aerial tests can be seen by everyone. russia never dares to conduct such tests. Because if they are unsuccessful, the whole world will know that russia has no tactical nuclear weapons.
Oleksandr Kochetkov, analyst, political technologist, former developer, design engineer at the Pivdennyi Design Bureau.
Full interview is available below:
esterday, the president of russian vladymyr putin during his meeting with the Belarusian president Lukashenko anounced that russian tactical nuclear weapons will be deployed to Belarus after July 7-8, 2023.